| Titre : | Extremes for scarce data: the role of Bayesian and scaling techniques in reducing uncertainty |
| Titre original : | Extremes à partir des samples limitées: techniques Bayesiennes et de changement d'échelles pour reduire les incertitudes |
| Auteurs : | Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla, Auteur ; Jesus Gomez Aguar, Auteur ; Juan Jose Egozcue, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article : texte imprimé |
| Dans : | Journal of hydraulic research (Vol. 46 extra issue, Mars/Avril 2008) |
| Article en page(s) : | pp. 224-234 |
| Note générale : |
Hydraulique
Résumé en Français |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Index. décimale : | 627 (Ingénierie des cours d'eau naturels, des ports, des rades et des cotes. Installations de navigation, de dragage, de récupération et de sauvetage. Barrages et centrales électriques hydrauliques) |
| Tags : | Extremes Scaling Selection Threshold Wave |
| Résumé : |
This paper deals with the analysis of extreme wave heights and their uncertainties. The main purpose is to assess confidence intervals using a conventional extreme value, and a Bayesian approach. It is shown how the introduction of an a priori information helps to bound the upper confidence limit. The analysis is performed with wave-height data recorded off the Spanish Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) and wave-height data from the Dutch coast (North Sea). An analysis with natural-scale and log-transformed wave-height time series has been performed. This scale selection is proven to be advantageous for naturally bounded variables and also better captures some distribution features. The paper ends with a discussion on how the different techniques can be used to select a statistically robust threshold for an extreme event definition. This affects the evaluation of risk in low-lying coastal areas, associated to variables controlling flooding and erosion risks.
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| DEWEY : | 627 |
| ISSN : | 0022-1686 |
| En ligne : | http://www.journalhydraulicresearch.com |
