| Titre : | Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study (2011) |
| Auteurs : | Aytac, B., Auteur ; Wu, S. D., Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article : texte imprimé |
| Dans : | Journal of the operational research society (JORS) (Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue, Mars 2011) |
| Article en page(s) : | pp. 425–432 |
| Note générale : | Recherche opérationnelle |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Index. décimale : | 001.424 |
| Tags : | Bayesian forecasting Leading indicators Cumulative demand growth Short life-cycle products High-tech industry |
| Résumé : | Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts. |
| DEWEY : | 001.424 |
| ISSN : | 0160-5682 |
| En ligne : | http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201089a.html |
