Dépouillements

Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case / Caniato, F. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 413–424 Titre : Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Caniato, F., Auteur ; Kalchschmidt, M., Auteur ; Ronchi, S., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 413–424 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Forecasting  Action  research  Implementation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This article examines the integration of quantitative and judgmental forecasting, focusing on the implementation process and its impacts on the organization. To this end, the study is based on an action research case study in the cement industry. Empirical evidence highlights the critical change management issues that need to be dealt with to implement an integrated forecasting system. The implementation phase needs to be carried out carefully to gain acceptance within the organization and to provide the best results. In addition, the forecasting process and organization need to be aligned to allow a two-way flow of information from the periphery to the centre and vice versa to allow the integration of the two approaches. In this way, not only can forecasting accuracy be improved, but better knowledge and consensus within the organization can also be achieved. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010142a.html [article] Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case [texte imprimé] / Caniato, F., Auteur ; Kalchschmidt, M., Auteur ; Ronchi, S., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 413–424. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 413–424 Mots-clés : Forecasting  Action  research  Implementation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This article examines the integration of quantitative and judgmental forecasting, focusing on the implementation process and its impacts on the organization. To this end, the study is based on an action research case study in the cement industry. Empirical evidence highlights the critical change management issues that need to be dealt with to implement an integrated forecasting system. The implementation phase needs to be carried out carefully to gain acceptance within the organization and to provide the best results. In addition, the forecasting process and organization need to be aligned to allow a two-way flow of information from the periphery to the centre and vice versa to allow the integration of the two approaches. In this way, not only can forecasting accuracy be improved, but better knowledge and consensus within the organization can also be achieved. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010142a.html

Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study / Aytac, B. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 425–432 Titre : Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Aytac, B., Auteur ; Wu, S. D., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 425–432 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Bayesian  forecasting  Leading  indicators  Cumulative  demand  growth  Short  life-cycle  products  High-tech  industry Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201089a.html [article] Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study [texte imprimé] / Aytac, B., Auteur ; Wu, S. D., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 425–432. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 425–432 Mots-clés : Bayesian  forecasting  Leading  indicators  Cumulative  demand  growth  Short  life-cycle  products  High-tech  industry Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201089a.html

Breadth of range and depth of stock: forecasting and inventory management at Euro Car Parts Ltd. / Johnston, F. R. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 433–441 Titre : Breadth of range and depth of stock: forecasting and inventory management at Euro Car Parts Ltd. Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Johnston, F. R., Auteur ; Shale, E. A., Auteur ; Kapoor, S., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 433–441 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Inventory  Range  Stock  Service  Supply  chain  Forecasting Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper investigates inventory management issues in a distribution network. The study is motivated by examining the operation of a wholesaling car parts company. Customer service requirements are of paramount importance in this market sector. The nature of the demand facing the company is characterised. The breadth of range of stock keeping units (SKUs) held at a stocking location and the quantity of each SKU held are normally treated in isolation but in this case, the rule developed to select the range of SKU was extended to determine the level of stock to hold. It is intuitively obvious that these two factors should be linked, yet the authors have not found any other literature developing the connection in a practical context. Forecasting issues are explored as the rule on stock range depends on a forecast of the number of orders received for each SKU at each stocking unit. Some implementation issues and extensions are indicated. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010189a.html [article] Breadth of range and depth of stock: forecasting and inventory management at Euro Car Parts Ltd. [texte imprimé] / Johnston, F. R., Auteur ; Shale, E. A., Auteur ; Kapoor, S., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 433–441. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 433–441 Mots-clés : Inventory  Range  Stock  Service  Supply  chain  Forecasting Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper investigates inventory management issues in a distribution network. The study is motivated by examining the operation of a wholesaling car parts company. Customer service requirements are of paramount importance in this market sector. The nature of the demand facing the company is characterised. The breadth of range of stock keeping units (SKUs) held at a stocking location and the quantity of each SKU held are normally treated in isolation but in this case, the rule developed to select the range of SKU was extended to determine the level of stock to hold. It is intuitively obvious that these two factors should be linked, yet the authors have not found any other literature developing the connection in a practical context. Forecasting issues are explored as the rule on stock range depends on a forecast of the number of orders received for each SKU at each stocking unit. Some implementation issues and extensions are indicated. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010189a.html

Spare parts logistics and installed base information / Jalil, M. N. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 442–457 Titre : Spare parts logistics and installed base information Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Jalil, M. N., Auteur ; Zuidwijk, R. A., Auteur ; Fleischmann, M., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 442–457 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Value  of  information  Installed  base  information  Information  quality  Forecasting  Spare  parts  logistics  planning  Practice  of  OR Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Many of the challenges in spare parts logistics emerge due to the combination of large service networks, and sporadic/slow-moving demand. Customer heterogeneity and stringent service deadlines entail further challenges. Meanwhile, high revenue rates in service operations motivate companies to invest and optimize the service logistics function. An important aspect of the spare parts logistics function is its ability to support customer-specific requirements with respect to service deadlines. To support customer specific operations, many companies are actively maintaining and utilizing installed base data during forecasting, planning and execution stages. In this paper, we highlight the potential economic value of installed base data for spare parts logistics. We also discuss various data quality issues that are associated with the use of installed base data and show that planning performance depends on the quality dimensions. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201038a.html [article] Spare parts logistics and installed base information [texte imprimé] / Jalil, M. N., Auteur ; Zuidwijk, R. A., Auteur ; Fleischmann, M., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 442–457. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 442–457 Mots-clés : Value  of  information  Installed  base  information  Information  quality  Forecasting  Spare  parts  logistics  planning  Practice  of  OR Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Many of the challenges in spare parts logistics emerge due to the combination of large service networks, and sporadic/slow-moving demand. Customer heterogeneity and stringent service deadlines entail further challenges. Meanwhile, high revenue rates in service operations motivate companies to invest and optimize the service logistics function. An important aspect of the spare parts logistics function is its ability to support customer-specific requirements with respect to service deadlines. To support customer specific operations, many companies are actively maintaining and utilizing installed base data during forecasting, planning and execution stages. In this paper, we highlight the potential economic value of installed base data for spare parts logistics. We also discuss various data quality issues that are associated with the use of installed base data and show that planning performance depends on the quality dimensions. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201038a.html

Demand forecasting and sharing strategies to reduce fluctuations and the bullwhip effect in supply chains / Barlas, Y. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 458–473 Titre : Demand forecasting and sharing strategies to reduce fluctuations and the bullwhip effect in supply chains Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Barlas, Y., Auteur ; Gunduz, B., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 458–473 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Supply  chain  Bullwhip  effect  Demand  forecasting  Information  sharing  System  dynamics  Simulation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Supply chain inventories are prone to fluctuations and instability. Known as the bullwhip effect, small variations in the end item demand create oscillations that amplify throughout the chain. By using system dynamics simulation, we investigate some of the structural sources of the bullwhip effect, and explore the effectiveness of information sharing to eliminate the undesirable fluctuations. Extensive simulation analysis is carried out on parameters of some standard ordering policies, as well as external demand and lead-time parameters. Simulation results show that (i) a major structural cause of the bullwhip effect is isolated demand forecasting performed at each echelon of the supply chain, and (ii) demand and forecast sharing strategies can significantly reduce the bullwhip effect, even though they cannot completely eliminate it. We specifically show how each policy is improved by demand and forecast sharing. Future research involves more advanced ordering and forecasting methods, modelling of other well-known sources of bullwhip, and more complex supply network structures. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010188a.html [article] Demand forecasting and sharing strategies to reduce fluctuations and the bullwhip effect in supply chains [texte imprimé] / Barlas, Y., Auteur ; Gunduz, B., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 458–473. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 458–473 Mots-clés : Supply  chain  Bullwhip  effect  Demand  forecasting  Information  sharing  System  dynamics  Simulation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Supply chain inventories are prone to fluctuations and instability. Known as the bullwhip effect, small variations in the end item demand create oscillations that amplify throughout the chain. By using system dynamics simulation, we investigate some of the structural sources of the bullwhip effect, and explore the effectiveness of information sharing to eliminate the undesirable fluctuations. Extensive simulation analysis is carried out on parameters of some standard ordering policies, as well as external demand and lead-time parameters. Simulation results show that (i) a major structural cause of the bullwhip effect is isolated demand forecasting performed at each echelon of the supply chain, and (ii) demand and forecast sharing strategies can significantly reduce the bullwhip effect, even though they cannot completely eliminate it. We specifically show how each policy is improved by demand and forecast sharing. Future research involves more advanced ordering and forecasting methods, modelling of other well-known sources of bullwhip, and more complex supply network structures. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010188a.html

Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains / Ali, M. M. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 474–482 Titre : Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Ali, M. M., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 474–482 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Bullwhip  effect  ARIMA  modeling  Downstream  demand  inference  Information  sharing  Supply  chain  management Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Many companies are adopting strategies that enable Demand Information Sharing (DIS) between the supply chain links. Recently, a steady stream of research has identified mathematical relationships between demands and orders at any link in the supply chain. Based on these relationships and strict model assumptions, it has been suggested that the upstream member can infer the demand at the downstream member from their orders. If this is so, DIS will be of no value. In this paper, we argue that real-world modelling requires less restrictive assumptions. We present Feasibility Principles to show that it is not possible for an upstream member to accurately infer consumer demand under more realistic model assumptions. Thus, we conclude that DIS has value in supply chains. We then move our focus to the supply chain model assumptions in the papers arguing that there is value in sharing demand information. Using a simulation experiment, we show that the value of sharing demand information in terms of inventory reductions will increase under more realistic supply chain model assumptions. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201082a.html [article] Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains [texte imprimé] / Ali, M. M., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 474–482. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 474–482 Mots-clés : Bullwhip  effect  ARIMA  modeling  Downstream  demand  inference  Information  sharing  Supply  chain  management Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Many companies are adopting strategies that enable Demand Information Sharing (DIS) between the supply chain links. Recently, a steady stream of research has identified mathematical relationships between demands and orders at any link in the supply chain. Based on these relationships and strict model assumptions, it has been suggested that the upstream member can infer the demand at the downstream member from their orders. If this is so, DIS will be of no value. In this paper, we argue that real-world modelling requires less restrictive assumptions. We present Feasibility Principles to show that it is not possible for an upstream member to accurately infer consumer demand under more realistic model assumptions. Thus, we conclude that DIS has value in supply chains. We then move our focus to the supply chain model assumptions in the papers arguing that there is value in sharing demand information. Using a simulation experiment, we show that the value of sharing demand information in terms of inventory reductions will increase under more realistic supply chain model assumptions. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201082a.html

Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecast error in supply chain planning modelsstar / Fildes, R. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 483–500 Titre : Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecast error in supply chain planning modelsstar Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Fildes, R., Auteur ; Kingsman, B., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 483–500 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Lot  sizing  Forecasting  Service  levels  Demand  uncertainty  Value  of  forecasting  Supply  chain Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper develops a framework for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on unit costs and customer service levels in the supply chain, including Material Requirements Planning (MRP) type manufacturing systems. The aim is to overcome the methodological limitations and confusion that has arisen in much earlier research. To illustrate the issues, the problem of estimating the value of improving forecasting accuracy for a manufacturer was simulated. The topic is of practical importance because manufacturers spend large sums of money in purchasing and staffing forecasting support systems to achieve more accurate forecasts. In order to estimate the value a two-level MRP system with lot sizing where the product is manufactured for stock was simulated. Final product demand was generated by two commonly occurring stochastic processes and with different variances. Different levels of forecasting error were then introduced to arrive at corresponding values for improving forecasting accuracy. The quantitative estimates of improved accuracy were found to depend on both the demand generating process and the forecasting method. Within this more complete framework, the substantive results confirm earlier research that the best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. However, size matters, both in the demand uncertainty and forecasting errors. The quantitative differences depend on service level and also the form of demand uncertainty. Unit costs for a given service level increase exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also estimates the effects of mis-specification of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high demand uncertainty and high forecast error, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs. Methodologically, the results demonstrate the need to simulate demand uncertainty and the forecasting process separately. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201040a.html [article] Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecast error in supply chain planning modelsstar [texte imprimé] / Fildes, R., Auteur ; Kingsman, B., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 483–500. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 483–500 Mots-clés : Lot  sizing  Forecasting  Service  levels  Demand  uncertainty  Value  of  forecasting  Supply  chain Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper develops a framework for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on unit costs and customer service levels in the supply chain, including Material Requirements Planning (MRP) type manufacturing systems. The aim is to overcome the methodological limitations and confusion that has arisen in much earlier research. To illustrate the issues, the problem of estimating the value of improving forecasting accuracy for a manufacturer was simulated. The topic is of practical importance because manufacturers spend large sums of money in purchasing and staffing forecasting support systems to achieve more accurate forecasts. In order to estimate the value a two-level MRP system with lot sizing where the product is manufactured for stock was simulated. Final product demand was generated by two commonly occurring stochastic processes and with different variances. Different levels of forecasting error were then introduced to arrive at corresponding values for improving forecasting accuracy. The quantitative estimates of improved accuracy were found to depend on both the demand generating process and the forecasting method. Within this more complete framework, the substantive results confirm earlier research that the best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. However, size matters, both in the demand uncertainty and forecasting errors. The quantitative differences depend on service level and also the form of demand uncertainty. Unit costs for a given service level increase exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also estimates the effects of mis-specification of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high demand uncertainty and high forecast error, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs. Methodologically, the results demonstrate the need to simulate demand uncertainty and the forecasting process separately. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201040a.html

Normative agent-based simulation for supply chain planning / Ferreira, L. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 501–514 Titre : Normative agent-based simulation for supply chain planning Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Ferreira, L., Auteur ; Borenstein, D., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 501–514 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Simulation  Artificial  intelligence  Planning  Supply  chain  Agent-based  modelling Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper presents an agent-based simulation framework for supply chain (SC) planning, introducing the notion of normative agent. The analysis of the relevant literature shows that most research works carried out in this area aim to handle specific problems and contexts. Although some methodologies and more generic solutions have been proposed, they are not able to cope with SCs in which regulation plays an important role, whether issued by a government agent or by an international institution. Several SCs, such as in the energy, food, chemical, and forestry areas, are highly regulated. Explicitly modelling the actors involved in the regulation of SCs using normative agents allowed us to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative strategies for planning of regulated SCs. The modelling of a biodiesel SC is presented as a case study. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010144a.html [article] Normative agent-based simulation for supply chain planning [texte imprimé] / Ferreira, L., Auteur ; Borenstein, D., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 501–514. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 501–514 Mots-clés : Simulation  Artificial  intelligence  Planning  Supply  chain  Agent-based  modelling Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : This paper presents an agent-based simulation framework for supply chain (SC) planning, introducing the notion of normative agent. The analysis of the relevant literature shows that most research works carried out in this area aim to handle specific problems and contexts. Although some methodologies and more generic solutions have been proposed, they are not able to cope with SCs in which regulation plays an important role, whether issued by a government agent or by an international institution. Several SCs, such as in the energy, food, chemical, and forestry areas, are highly regulated. Explicitly modelling the actors involved in the regulation of SCs using normative agents allowed us to evaluate the potential benefits of alternative strategies for planning of regulated SCs. The modelling of a biodiesel SC is presented as a case study. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors2010144a.html

Optimising a value-based performance indicator in mid-term sales and operations planning / Hahn, G. J. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 515–525 Titre : Optimising a value-based performance indicator in mid-term sales and operations planning Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Hahn, G. J., Auteur ; Kuhn, H., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 515–525 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Value-based  management  Supply  chain  optimisation  Sales  and  operations  planning Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Economic Value Added (EVA®) and corresponding value driver trees are prevalent frameworks of value-based management to measure and analyse shareholder value creation. However, they are explanatory models from an operations research perspective and do not provide decision support for performance optimisation. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive value-based decision framework for mid-term sales and operations planning (S&OP) in the supply chain implementing EVA as the objective function. The pivotal element of our framework is a decision-oriented extension of EVA-based value driver trees bridging the gap to the decision variables of S&OP as the operational performance levers. We utilise a numerical example to highlight the significant improvement potential due to the value-based optimisation approach. Working capital management emerges as the major mid- to short-term value driver in the supply chain. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201096a.html [article] Optimising a value-based performance indicator in mid-term sales and operations planning [texte imprimé] / Hahn, G. J., Auteur ; Kuhn, H., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 515–525. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 515–525 Mots-clés : Value-based  management  Supply  chain  optimisation  Sales  and  operations  planning Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Economic Value Added (EVA®) and corresponding value driver trees are prevalent frameworks of value-based management to measure and analyse shareholder value creation. However, they are explanatory models from an operations research perspective and do not provide decision support for performance optimisation. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive value-based decision framework for mid-term sales and operations planning (S&OP) in the supply chain implementing EVA as the objective function. The pivotal element of our framework is a decision-oriented extension of EVA-based value driver trees bridging the gap to the decision variables of S&OP as the operational performance levers. We utilise a numerical example to highlight the significant improvement potential due to the value-based optimisation approach. Working capital management emerges as the major mid- to short-term value driver in the supply chain. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201096a.html

Determining supply requirement in the sales-and-operations-planning (S&OP) process under demand uncertainty: a stochastic programming formulation and a spreadsheet implementation / Sodhi, M. S. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 526–536 Titre : Determining supply requirement in the sales-and-operations-planning (S&OP) process under demand uncertainty: a stochastic programming formulation and a spreadsheet implementation Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Sodhi, M. S., Auteur ; Tang, C. S., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 526–536 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Stochastic  programming  Supply-chain  planning  Demand  uncertainty  Sales-and-operations  planning  (S&OP)  Conditional  value-at-risk  (cVaR)  Spreadsheet Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : We show how to extend the demand-planning stage of the sales-and-operations-planning (S&OP) process with a spreadsheet implementation of a stochastic programming model that determines the supply requirement while optimally trading off risks of unmet demand, excess inventory, and inadequate liquidity in the presence of demand uncertainty. We first present the model that minimizes the weighted sum of respective conditional value-at-risk (cVaR) metrics over demand scenarios in the form of a binomial tree. The output of this model is the supply requirement to be used in the supply-planning stage of the S&OP process. Next we show how row-and-column aggregation of the model reduces its size from exponential (2T) in the number of time periods T in the planning horizon to merely square (T2). Finally, we demonstrate the tractability of this aggregated model in an Excel spreadsheet implementation with a numerical example with 26 time periods. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201093a.html [article] Determining supply requirement in the sales-and-operations-planning (S&OP) process under demand uncertainty: a stochastic programming formulation and a spreadsheet implementation [texte imprimé] / Sodhi, M. S., Auteur ; Tang, C. S., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 526–536. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 526–536 Mots-clés : Stochastic  programming  Supply-chain  planning  Demand  uncertainty  Sales-and-operations  planning  (S&OP)  Conditional  value-at-risk  (cVaR)  Spreadsheet Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : We show how to extend the demand-planning stage of the sales-and-operations-planning (S&OP) process with a spreadsheet implementation of a stochastic programming model that determines the supply requirement while optimally trading off risks of unmet demand, excess inventory, and inadequate liquidity in the presence of demand uncertainty. We first present the model that minimizes the weighted sum of respective conditional value-at-risk (cVaR) metrics over demand scenarios in the form of a binomial tree. The output of this model is the supply requirement to be used in the supply-planning stage of the S&OP process. Next we show how row-and-column aggregation of the model reduces its size from exponential (2T) in the number of time periods T in the planning horizon to merely square (T2). Finally, we demonstrate the tractability of this aggregated model in an Excel spreadsheet implementation with a numerical example with 26 time periods. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201093a.html

Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter? / Franses, P. H. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 537–543 Titre : Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter? Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Franses, P. H., Auteur ; Legerstee, R., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 537–543 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Model-based  forecasts  Expert  forecasts  Forecast  accuracy  Multi-step-ahead  forecasts Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Experts (managers) may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve short-run and long-run forecasts of SKU-level sales data. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a time series variable. Analysing a large database concerning pharmaceutical sales forecasts for various products and adjusted by a range of experts, we examine whether the forecast horizon has an impact on what experts do and on how good they are once they adjust model-based forecasts. For this, we use regression-based methods and we obtain five innovative results. First, all horizons experience managerial intervention of forecasts. Second, the horizon that is most relevant to the managers shows greater overweighting of the expert adjustment. Third, for all horizons the expert adjusted forecasts have less accuracy than pure model-based forecasts, with distant horizons having the least deterioration. Fourth, when expert-adjusted forecasts are significantly better, they are best at those distant horizons. Fifth, when expert adjustment is down-weighted, expert forecast accuracy increases. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201087a.html [article] Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter? [texte imprimé] / Franses, P. H., Auteur ; Legerstee, R., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 537–543. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 537–543 Mots-clés : Model-based  forecasts  Expert  forecasts  Forecast  accuracy  Multi-step-ahead  forecasts Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Experts (managers) may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve short-run and long-run forecasts of SKU-level sales data. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a time series variable. Analysing a large database concerning pharmaceutical sales forecasts for various products and adjusted by a range of experts, we examine whether the forecast horizon has an impact on what experts do and on how good they are once they adjust model-based forecasts. For this, we use regression-based methods and we obtain five innovative results. First, all horizons experience managerial intervention of forecasts. Second, the horizon that is most relevant to the managers shows greater overweighting of the expert adjustment. Third, for all horizons the expert adjusted forecasts have less accuracy than pure model-based forecasts, with distant horizons having the least deterioration. Fourth, when expert-adjusted forecasts are significantly better, they are best at those distant horizons. Fifth, when expert adjustment is down-weighted, expert forecast accuracy increases. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201087a.html

An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting / Nikolopoulos, K. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 544–554 Titre : An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting : an empirical proposition and analysis Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Nikolopoulos, K., Auteur ; Syntetos, A. A., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 544–554 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Demand  forecasting  Inventory  management  Intermittent  demand  Aggregation  Empirical  investigation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Intermittent demand patterns are characterised by infrequent demand arrivals coupled with variable demand sizes. Such patterns prevail in many industrial applications, including IT, automotive, aerospace and military. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’ thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. However, such aggregation may result in losing useful information, as the frequency of observations is reduced. In this paper, we explore the effects of aggregation by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force (UK). We are also concerned with the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period). This part of the analysis is of direct relevance to a (periodic) inventory management setting where such cumulative lead-time demand estimates are required. Our study allows insights to be gained into the value of aggregation in an intermittent demand context. The paper concludes with an agenda for further research. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201032a.html [article] An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting : an empirical proposition and analysis [texte imprimé] / Nikolopoulos, K., Auteur ; Syntetos, A. A., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 544–554. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 544–554 Mots-clés : Demand  forecasting  Inventory  management  Intermittent  demand  Aggregation  Empirical  investigation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Intermittent demand patterns are characterised by infrequent demand arrivals coupled with variable demand sizes. Such patterns prevail in many industrial applications, including IT, automotive, aerospace and military. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’ thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. However, such aggregation may result in losing useful information, as the frequency of observations is reduced. In this paper, we explore the effects of aggregation by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force (UK). We are also concerned with the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period). This part of the analysis is of direct relevance to a (periodic) inventory management setting where such cumulative lead-time demand estimates are required. Our study allows insights to be gained into the value of aggregation in an intermittent demand context. The paper concludes with an agenda for further research. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201032a.html

Multi-item sales forecasting with total and split exponential smoothing / Taylor, J. W. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 555–563 Titre : Multi-item sales forecasting with total and split exponential smoothing Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Taylor, J. W., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 555–563 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Forecasting  Exponential  smoothing  Supply  chain  Robust  methods Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Efficient supply chain management relies on accurate demand forecasting. Typically, forecasts are required at frequent intervals for many items. Forecasting methods suitable for this application are those that can be relied upon to produce robust and accurate predictions when implemented within an automated procedure. Exponential smoothing methods are a common choice. In this empirical case study paper, we evaluate a recently proposed seasonal exponential smoothing method that has previously been considered only for forecasting daily supermarket sales. We term this method ‘total and split’ exponential smoothing, and apply it to monthly sales data from a publishing company. The resulting forecasts are compared against a variety of methods, including several available in the software currently used by the company. Our results show total and split exponential smoothing outperforming the other methods considered. The results were also impressive for a method that trims outliers and then applies simple exponential smoothing. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201095a.html [article] Multi-item sales forecasting with total and split exponential smoothing [texte imprimé] / Taylor, J. W., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 555–563. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 555–563 Mots-clés : Forecasting  Exponential  smoothing  Supply  chain  Robust  methods Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Efficient supply chain management relies on accurate demand forecasting. Typically, forecasts are required at frequent intervals for many items. Forecasting methods suitable for this application are those that can be relied upon to produce robust and accurate predictions when implemented within an automated procedure. Exponential smoothing methods are a common choice. In this empirical case study paper, we evaluate a recently proposed seasonal exponential smoothing method that has previously been considered only for forecasting daily supermarket sales. We term this method ‘total and split’ exponential smoothing, and apply it to monthly sales data from a publishing company. The resulting forecasts are compared against a variety of methods, including several available in the software currently used by the company. Our results show total and split exponential smoothing outperforming the other methods considered. The results were also impressive for a method that trims outliers and then applies simple exponential smoothing. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201095a.html

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