Joint probability analysis for estimation extremes / Peter J. Hawks in Journal of hydraulic research, Vol. 46 extra issue (Mars/Avril 2008)  

Public ISBD [article]  inJournal of hydraulic research > Vol. 46 extra issue (Mars/Avril 2008) . - pp. 246-256 Titre : Joint probability analysis for estimation extremes Titre original : Analyse probabilités conjointes pour une évaluation des extrêmes Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Peter J. Hawks, Auteur Article en page(s) : pp. 246-256 Note générale : Hydraulique Résumé en Français Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Coast Dependence Extremes Flood risk Joint probability River Index. décimale : 627 Ingénierie des cours d'eau naturels, des ports, des rades et des cotes. Installations de navigation, de dragage, de récupération et de sauvetage. Barrages et centrales électriques hydrauliques Résumé : Conditions required to cause flooding often involve more than one source variable such as large waves combined with a high sea level causing coastal flooding, or high river flow combined with a high sea level causing river flooding. In order to estimate the probability of flooding, one needs to know not only the high and extreme values of each variable, but also their likelihood of occurring simultaneously. This work summarises the terminology and the types of method available for joint probability analysis, and discusses the issues associated with data selection and event definition. It then describes the development and testing of methods for incorporation of temporal dependence into an approach involving Monte Carlo simulation. An illustration study shows the effect of introducing firstly short-term clustering, then seasonality and long-term trend. Three further case studies are used to illustrate some key points in the appropriate use and interpretation of joint probability methods. DEWEY : 627 ISSN : 0022-1686 En ligne : http://www.journalhydraulicresearch.com [article] Joint probability analysis for estimation extremes = Analyse probabilités conjointes pour une évaluation des extrêmes [texte imprimé] / Peter J. Hawks, Auteur . - pp. 246-256. Hydraulique Résumé en Français Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of hydraulic research > Vol. 46 extra issue (Mars/Avril 2008) . - pp. 246-256 Mots-clés : Coast Dependence Extremes Flood risk Joint probability River Index. décimale : 627 Ingénierie des cours d'eau naturels, des ports, des rades et des cotes. Installations de navigation, de dragage, de récupération et de sauvetage. Barrages et centrales électriques hydrauliques Résumé : Conditions required to cause flooding often involve more than one source variable such as large waves combined with a high sea level causing coastal flooding, or high river flow combined with a high sea level causing river flooding. In order to estimate the probability of flooding, one needs to know not only the high and extreme values of each variable, but also their likelihood of occurring simultaneously. This work summarises the terminology and the types of method available for joint probability analysis, and discusses the issues associated with data selection and event definition. It then describes the development and testing of methods for incorporation of temporal dependence into an approach involving Monte Carlo simulation. An illustration study shows the effect of introducing firstly short-term clustering, then seasonality and long-term trend. Three further case studies are used to illustrate some key points in the appropriate use and interpretation of joint probability methods. DEWEY : 627 ISSN : 0022-1686 En ligne : http://www.journalhydraulicresearch.com

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