| Titre : | Optimal forecasting groups (2012) |
| Auteurs : | P. J. Lamberson, Auteur ; Scott E. Page, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article : texte imprimé |
| Dans : | Management science (Vol. 58 N° 4, Avril 2012) |
| Article en page(s) : | pp. 805-810 |
| Note générale : | Management |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Tags : | Combining forecasts Optimal groups Information aggregation |
| Résumé : | This paper characterizes the optimal composition of a group for making a combined forecast. In the model, individual forecasters have types defined according to a statistical criterion we call type coherence. Members of the same type have identical expected accuracy, and forecasters within a type have higher covariance than forecasters of different types. We derive the optimal group composition as a function of predictive accuracy, between- and within-type covariance, and group size. Group size plays a critical role in determining the optimal group: in small groups the most accurate type should be in the majority, whereas in large groups the type with the least within-type covariance should dominate. |
| DEWEY : | 658 |
| ISSN : | 0025-1909 |
| En ligne : | http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/4/805.abstract |
