| Titre : | Modeling purchasing behavior with sudden “Death” : A flexible customer lifetime model (2012) |
| Auteurs : | Albert C. Bemmaor, Auteur ; Nicolas Glady, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article : texte imprimé |
| Dans : | Management science (Vol. 58 N° 5, Mai 2012) |
| Article en page(s) : | pp. 1012-1021 |
| Note générale : | Management |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Tags : | Buyer behavior Mixture models Catalog retailing Gompertz distribution |
| Résumé : | This study proposes a new customer lifetime model: the gamma/Gompertz distribution (G/G). The advantage of this model relative to the well-known Pareto distribution is twofold: (i) its probability density function can exhibit a mode at zero or an interior mode, and (ii) it can be skewed to the right or to the left. We combine the G/G with a negative binomial distribution (NBD) and obtain the moments of the distribution of the number of transactions over (0, T] and (T, T+T*]. Out of six data sets, the G/G/NBD model provides a notable improvement in the log-likelihood over the Pareto/NBD model in four data sets. It can indicate substantial differences in expected residual lifetimes compared to the Pareto/NBD and induce a retention rather than acquisition policy. On the average, the G/G/NBD exhibits slightly better forecasts of the mean number of transactions than the Pareto/NBD. |
| DEWEY : | 658 |
| ISSN : | 0025-1909 |
| En ligne : | http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/5/1012.abstract |
