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Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes / Gokhan Saygili in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) . - pp. 790–803 Titre : Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Gokhan Saygili, Auteur ; Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 790–803 Note générale : Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Earthquakes  Landslides  Slope  stability  Probability  Seismic  effects Résumé : Earthquake-induced sliding displacement is the parameter most often used to assess the seismic stability of slopes. The expected displacement can be predicted as a function of the characteristics of the slope (yield acceleration) and the ground motion (e.g., peak ground acceleration), yet there is significant aleatory variability associated with the displacement prediction. Using multiple ground motion parameters to characterize the earthquake shaking can significantly reduce the variability in the prediction. Empirical predictive models for rigid block sliding displacements are developed using displacements calculated from over 2,000 acceleration–time histories and four values of yield acceleration. These empirical models consider various single ground motion parameters and vectors of ground motion parameters to predict the sliding displacement, with the goal of minimizing the standard deviation of the displacement prediction. The combination of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity is the two parameter vector that results in the smallest standard deviation in the displacement prediction, whereas the three parameter combination of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Arias intensity further reduces the standard deviation. The developed displacement predictive models can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for sliding displacement or used as predictive tools for deterministic earthquake scenarios. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A6%2879 [...] [article] Empirical predictive models for earthquake-induced sliding displacements of slopes [texte imprimé] / Gokhan Saygili, Auteur ; Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 790–803. Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) . - pp. 790–803 Mots-clés : Earthquakes  Landslides  Slope  stability  Probability  Seismic  effects Résumé : Earthquake-induced sliding displacement is the parameter most often used to assess the seismic stability of slopes. The expected displacement can be predicted as a function of the characteristics of the slope (yield acceleration) and the ground motion (e.g., peak ground acceleration), yet there is significant aleatory variability associated with the displacement prediction. Using multiple ground motion parameters to characterize the earthquake shaking can significantly reduce the variability in the prediction. Empirical predictive models for rigid block sliding displacements are developed using displacements calculated from over 2,000 acceleration–time histories and four values of yield acceleration. These empirical models consider various single ground motion parameters and vectors of ground motion parameters to predict the sliding displacement, with the goal of minimizing the standard deviation of the displacement prediction. The combination of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity is the two parameter vector that results in the smallest standard deviation in the displacement prediction, whereas the three parameter combination of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Arias intensity further reduces the standard deviation. The developed displacement predictive models can be used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for sliding displacement or used as predictive tools for deterministic earthquake scenarios. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A6%2879 [...]

Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach / Ellen M. Rathje in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 137 N° 3 (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 137 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 208-217 Titre : Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur ; Gokhan Saygili, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 208-217 Note générale : Géotechnique Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Probabilistic  Seismic  hazard  Assessment  Slope  displacement  Seismic  performance Index. décimale : 624.1 Infrastructures.Ouvrages en terre. Fondations. Tunnels Résumé : Permanent sliding displacements are used to evaluate the seismic stability of earth slopes, and current practice utilizes a pseudoprobabilistic approach to predict the expected sliding displacement. The pseudoprobabilistic approach specifies a design ground-motion level based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and a specified hazard level (e.g., 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years), but the displacement is predicted deterministically based on the design ground-motion level. The fully probabilistic approach develops a hazard curve for sliding displacement, and it is used to assess the displacement of the slope for a given hazard level. Comparisons of the fully probabilistic and pseudoprobabilistic approaches indicate that the pseudoprobabilistic analysis provides nonconservative estimates of sliding displacement in most cases. This paper presents a modification to the pseudoprobabilistic approach that provides displacement values more consistent with the fully probabilistic approach. This modification involves specifying a displacement greater than the median, in order to take into account the uncertainty in the displacement prediction. The appropriate value of displacement above the median is a function of the ky/PGA value and the model used to predict the displacement. DEWEY : 624.1 ISSN : 1090-0241 En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/gto/resource/1/jggefk/v137/i3/p208_s1?isAuthorized=no [article] Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach [texte imprimé] / Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur ; Gokhan Saygili, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 208-217. Géotechnique Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 137 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 208-217 Mots-clés : Probabilistic  Seismic  hazard  Assessment  Slope  displacement  Seismic  performance Index. décimale : 624.1 Infrastructures.Ouvrages en terre. Fondations. Tunnels Résumé : Permanent sliding displacements are used to evaluate the seismic stability of earth slopes, and current practice utilizes a pseudoprobabilistic approach to predict the expected sliding displacement. The pseudoprobabilistic approach specifies a design ground-motion level based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and a specified hazard level (e.g., 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years), but the displacement is predicted deterministically based on the design ground-motion level. The fully probabilistic approach develops a hazard curve for sliding displacement, and it is used to assess the displacement of the slope for a given hazard level. Comparisons of the fully probabilistic and pseudoprobabilistic approaches indicate that the pseudoprobabilistic analysis provides nonconservative estimates of sliding displacement in most cases. This paper presents a modification to the pseudoprobabilistic approach that provides displacement values more consistent with the fully probabilistic approach. This modification involves specifying a displacement greater than the median, in order to take into account the uncertainty in the displacement prediction. The appropriate value of displacement above the median is a function of the ky/PGA value and the model used to predict the displacement. DEWEY : 624.1 ISSN : 1090-0241 En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/gto/resource/1/jggefk/v137/i3/p208_s1?isAuthorized=no

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the sliding displacement of slopes / Ellen M. Rathje in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) . - pp. 804–814 Titre : Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the sliding displacement of slopes : scalar and vector approaches Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur ; Gokhan Saygili, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 804–814 Note générale : Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Earthquakes  Landslides  Slope  stability  Probability  Seismic  effects  Displacement Résumé : Sliding block displacements often are used to evaluate the potential for ground failure due to slope instability. The procedures used to assess sliding block displacement typically use deterministic or pseudoprobabilistic approaches, in which the uncertainties in the expected ground motion and resulting displacement are either ignored or not treated in a rigorous manner. Thus, there is no concept of the actual hazard associated with the computed displacement. This paper presents a fully probabilistic framework for assessing sliding block displacements. The product of this analysis is a displacement hazard curve, which provides the annual rate of exceedance, λ , for a range of displacement levels. The framework considers two procedures that will yield a displacement hazard curve: (1) a scalar hazard approach that utilizes a single ground motion parameter and its associated hazard curve to compute permanent displacements; and (2) a vector hazard approach that predicts displacements based on two (or more) ground motion parameters and the correlation between these parameters. The vector approach reduces the displacement hazard significantly, as compared with the scalar approach, because of the reduction in the variability in the displacement prediction. Comparison of the fully probabilistic approach with an approach using probabilistically derived ground motions reveals that using a ground motion for a given hazard level does not produce a displacement level with the same hazard. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A6%2880 [...] [article] Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the sliding displacement of slopes : scalar and vector approaches [texte imprimé] / Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur ; Gokhan Saygili, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 804–814. Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 N° 6 (Juin 2008) . - pp. 804–814 Mots-clés : Earthquakes  Landslides  Slope  stability  Probability  Seismic  effects  Displacement Résumé : Sliding block displacements often are used to evaluate the potential for ground failure due to slope instability. The procedures used to assess sliding block displacement typically use deterministic or pseudoprobabilistic approaches, in which the uncertainties in the expected ground motion and resulting displacement are either ignored or not treated in a rigorous manner. Thus, there is no concept of the actual hazard associated with the computed displacement. This paper presents a fully probabilistic framework for assessing sliding block displacements. The product of this analysis is a displacement hazard curve, which provides the annual rate of exceedance, λ , for a range of displacement levels. The framework considers two procedures that will yield a displacement hazard curve: (1) a scalar hazard approach that utilizes a single ground motion parameter and its associated hazard curve to compute permanent displacements; and (2) a vector hazard approach that predicts displacements based on two (or more) ground motion parameters and the correlation between these parameters. The vector approach reduces the displacement hazard significantly, as compared with the scalar approach, because of the reduction in the variability in the displacement prediction. Comparison of the fully probabilistic approach with an approach using probabilistically derived ground motions reveals that using a ground motion for a given hazard level does not produce a displacement level with the same hazard. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A6%2880 [...]