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Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study / Aytac, B. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 425–432 Titre : Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Aytac, B., Auteur ; Wu, S. D., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 425–432 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Bayesian  forecasting  Leading  indicators  Cumulative  demand  growth  Short  life-cycle  products  High-tech  industry Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201089a.html [article] Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study [texte imprimé] / Aytac, B., Auteur ; Wu, S. D., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 425–432. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 425–432 Mots-clés : Bayesian  forecasting  Leading  indicators  Cumulative  demand  growth  Short  life-cycle  products  High-tech  industry Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Increasing competition and volatile conditions in high-tech markets result in shortening product life cycles with non-cyclic demand patterns. This study illustrates the use of a demand-characterisation approach that models the underlying shape of product demands in these markets. In the approach, a Bayesian-update procedure combines the demand projections obtained from historical data with the short-term demand information provided from demand leading indicators. The goal of the Bayesian procedure is to improve the accuracy and reduce the variation of historical data-based demand projections. This paper discusses the implementation experience of the proposed approach at a semiconductor-manufacturing company; the key test results are presented using product families introduced over the last few years with a comparison to real-world benchmark demand forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201089a.html