An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting / Nikolopoulos, K. in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011)  

Public ISBD [article]  inJournal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 544–554 Titre : An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting : an empirical proposition and analysis Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Nikolopoulos, K., Auteur ; Syntetos, A. A., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 544–554 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Demand forecasting Inventory management Intermittent demand Aggregation Empirical investigation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Intermittent demand patterns are characterised by infrequent demand arrivals coupled with variable demand sizes. Such patterns prevail in many industrial applications, including IT, automotive, aerospace and military. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’ thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. However, such aggregation may result in losing useful information, as the frequency of observations is reduced. In this paper, we explore the effects of aggregation by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force (UK). We are also concerned with the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period). This part of the analysis is of direct relevance to a (periodic) inventory management setting where such cumulative lead-time demand estimates are required. Our study allows insights to be gained into the value of aggregation in an intermittent demand context. The paper concludes with an agenda for further research. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201032a.html [article] An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting : an empirical proposition and analysis [texte imprimé] / Nikolopoulos, K., Auteur ; Syntetos, A. A., Auteur ; Boylan, J. E., Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 544–554. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 62 N° 3 Special issue (Mars 2011) . - pp. 544–554 Mots-clés : Demand forecasting Inventory management Intermittent demand Aggregation Empirical investigation Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Intermittent demand patterns are characterised by infrequent demand arrivals coupled with variable demand sizes. Such patterns prevail in many industrial applications, including IT, automotive, aerospace and military. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’ thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. However, such aggregation may result in losing useful information, as the frequency of observations is reduced. In this paper, we explore the effects of aggregation by investigating 5000 stock keeping units from the Royal Air Force (UK). We are also concerned with the empirical determination of an optimum aggregation level as well as the effects of aggregating demand in time buckets that equal the lead-time length (plus review period). This part of the analysis is of direct relevance to a (periodic) inventory management setting where such cumulative lead-time demand estimates are required. Our study allows insights to be gained into the value of aggregation in an intermittent demand context. The paper concludes with an agenda for further research. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v62/n3/abs/jors201032a.html

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