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Competing to be certain (But Wrong) / Joseph R. Radzevick in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 1 (Janvier 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 1 (Janvier 2011) . - pp. 93-106 Titre : Competing to be certain (But Wrong) : Market dynamics and excessive confidence in judgment Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Joseph R. Radzevick, Auteur ; Don A. Moore, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 93-106 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Overconfidence  Advice  Competition  Markets  Judgment Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : In this paper, we investigate how market competition contributes to the expression of overconfidence among those competing for influence. We find evidence that market competition exacerbates the tendency to express excessive confidence. This evidence comes from experiments in which advisors attempt to sell their advice. In the first, advisors must compete with other advice sellers. In the second, advisors and their customers are paired. Advisors are overconfident in both studies and it helps advisors sell their advice. However, competition between advisors in the market further exacerbates overconfidence. In a third study, we demonstrate that the market competition drives overconfidence even when advisors vary in quality. We also investigate the strategic expressions and interpretations of confidence by both sides in the exchange. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/1/93 [article] Competing to be certain (But Wrong) : Market dynamics and excessive confidence in judgment [texte imprimé] / Joseph R. Radzevick, Auteur ; Don A. Moore, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 93-106. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 1 (Janvier 2011) . - pp. 93-106 Mots-clés : Overconfidence  Advice  Competition  Markets  Judgment Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : In this paper, we investigate how market competition contributes to the expression of overconfidence among those competing for influence. We find evidence that market competition exacerbates the tendency to express excessive confidence. This evidence comes from experiments in which advisors attempt to sell their advice. In the first, advisors must compete with other advice sellers. In the second, advisors and their customers are paired. Advisors are overconfident in both studies and it helps advisors sell their advice. However, competition between advisors in the market further exacerbates overconfidence. In a third study, we demonstrate that the market competition drives overconfidence even when advisors vary in quality. We also investigate the strategic expressions and interpretations of confidence by both sides in the exchange. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/1/93