Documents disponibles écrits par cet auteur

Predicting utility under satiation and habit formation / Manel Baucells in Management science, Vol. 56 N° 2 (Fevrier 2010) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 2 (Fevrier 2010) . - pp. 286-301 Titre : Predicting utility under satiation and habit formation Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Rakesh K. Sarin, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 286-301 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Time  preference  Discounted  utility  Habit  formation  Satiation  Variety  seeking  Projection  bias Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We introduce a modification of the discounted utility model that accounts for both satiation and habit formation in intertemporal choice. Preferences depend on the satiation level and the habitual consumption level. These two state variables, together with the shape of the value function, drive the properties of the model. One unique feature of our model is that it addresses the trade-off between seeking variety and maintaining acquired habits. We examine several properties of our model, such as the nontrivial patterns of desirability (willingness to pay) for an additional unit of consumption, or the effect of abstaining from consumption (craving). We explore the shape of optimal consumption patterns in discrete and continuous choice settings. If subjects underestimate the changes in satiation and habituation levels, as occurs under projection bias, our model explains why people buy more when hungry, or prefer variety in advance of consumption but stay with the same consumption good in actual use. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/56/2.toc [article] Predicting utility under satiation and habit formation [texte imprimé] / Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Rakesh K. Sarin, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 286-301. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 2 (Fevrier 2010) . - pp. 286-301 Mots-clés : Time  preference  Discounted  utility  Habit  formation  Satiation  Variety  seeking  Projection  bias Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We introduce a modification of the discounted utility model that accounts for both satiation and habit formation in intertemporal choice. Preferences depend on the satiation level and the habitual consumption level. These two state variables, together with the shape of the value function, drive the properties of the model. One unique feature of our model is that it addresses the trade-off between seeking variety and maintaining acquired habits. We examine several properties of our model, such as the nontrivial patterns of desirability (willingness to pay) for an additional unit of consumption, or the effect of abstaining from consumption (craving). We explore the shape of optimal consumption patterns in discrete and continuous choice settings. If subjects underestimate the changes in satiation and habituation levels, as occurs under projection bias, our model explains why people buy more when hungry, or prefer variety in advance of consumption but stay with the same consumption good in actual use. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/56/2.toc

Probability and time trade-off / Manel Baucells in Management science, Vol. 58 N° 4 (Avril 2012) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 58 N° 4 (Avril 2012) . - pp. 831-842 Titre : Probability and time trade-off Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Franz H. Heukamp, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 831-842 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Risk  preferences  Time  preferences  Probability  discount  rate  Subendurance  Magnitude  effect  Psychological  distance Résumé : Probability and time are integral dimensions of virtually any decision. To treat them together, we consider the prospect of receiving outcome x with a probability p at time t. We define risk and time distance, and show that if these two distances are traded off linearly, then preferences are characterized by three functions: a value function, a probability discount rate function, and a psychological distance function. The concavity of the psychological distance function explains the common ratio and common difference effects. A decreasing probability discount rate accounts for the magnitude effect. The discount rate and the risk premium depend on the shape of these three functions. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/4/831.abstract [article] Probability and time trade-off [texte imprimé] / Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Franz H. Heukamp, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 831-842. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 58 N° 4 (Avril 2012) . - pp. 831-842 Mots-clés : Risk  preferences  Time  preferences  Probability  discount  rate  Subendurance  Magnitude  effect  Psychological  distance Résumé : Probability and time are integral dimensions of virtually any decision. To treat them together, we consider the prospect of receiving outcome x with a probability p at time t. We define risk and time distance, and show that if these two distances are traded off linearly, then preferences are characterized by three functions: a value function, a probability discount rate function, and a psychological distance function. The concavity of the psychological distance function explains the common ratio and common difference effects. A decreasing probability discount rate accounts for the magnitude effect. The discount rate and the risk premium depend on the shape of these three functions. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/4/831.abstract

Reference-point formation and updating / Manel Baucells in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 506-519 Titre : Reference-point formation and updating Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Martin Weber, Auteur ; Frank Welfens, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 506-519 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Reference-point  formation  Reference-dependent  preferences  Disposition  effect  Probability  weighting Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Reference-dependent preferences have been well accepted in decision sciences, experimental economics, behavioral finance, and marketing. However, we still know very little about how decision makers form and update their reference points given a sequence of information. Our paper provides some novel experiments in a financial context to advance the understanding of reference-point formation over time. Our subjects' reference price is best described as a combination of the first and the last price of the time series, with intermediate prices receiving smaller and nondecaying weights. Hence, reference prices are not recursive. We provide a parsimonious formula to predict the reference points, which we test out-of-sample. The fit of the model is reasonably good. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/3/506 [article] Reference-point formation and updating [texte imprimé] / Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Martin Weber, Auteur ; Frank Welfens, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 506-519. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 506-519 Mots-clés : Reference-point  formation  Reference-dependent  preferences  Disposition  effect  Probability  weighting Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Reference-dependent preferences have been well accepted in decision sciences, experimental economics, behavioral finance, and marketing. However, we still know very little about how decision makers form and update their reference points given a sequence of information. Our paper provides some novel experiments in a financial context to advance the understanding of reference-point formation over time. Our subjects' reference price is best described as a combination of the first and the last price of the time series, with intermediate prices receiving smaller and nondecaying weights. Hence, reference prices are not recursive. We provide a parsimonious formula to predict the reference points, which we test out-of-sample. The fit of the model is reasonably good. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/3/506