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Reference-point formation and updating / Manel Baucells in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 506-519 Titre : Reference-point formation and updating Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Martin Weber, Auteur ; Frank Welfens, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 506-519 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Reference-point  formation  Reference-dependent  preferences  Disposition  effect  Probability  weighting Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Reference-dependent preferences have been well accepted in decision sciences, experimental economics, behavioral finance, and marketing. However, we still know very little about how decision makers form and update their reference points given a sequence of information. Our paper provides some novel experiments in a financial context to advance the understanding of reference-point formation over time. Our subjects' reference price is best described as a combination of the first and the last price of the time series, with intermediate prices receiving smaller and nondecaying weights. Hence, reference prices are not recursive. We provide a parsimonious formula to predict the reference points, which we test out-of-sample. The fit of the model is reasonably good. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/3/506 [article] Reference-point formation and updating [texte imprimé] / Manel Baucells, Auteur ; Martin Weber, Auteur ; Frank Welfens, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 506-519. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 506-519 Mots-clés : Reference-point  formation  Reference-dependent  preferences  Disposition  effect  Probability  weighting Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Reference-dependent preferences have been well accepted in decision sciences, experimental economics, behavioral finance, and marketing. However, we still know very little about how decision makers form and update their reference points given a sequence of information. Our paper provides some novel experiments in a financial context to advance the understanding of reference-point formation over time. Our subjects' reference price is best described as a combination of the first and the last price of the time series, with intermediate prices receiving smaller and nondecaying weights. Hence, reference prices are not recursive. We provide a parsimonious formula to predict the reference points, which we test out-of-sample. The fit of the model is reasonably good. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/57/3/506