Predicting the next big thing / Jerker Denrell in Management science, Vol. 56 N° 10 (Octobre 2010)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol. 56 N° 10 (Octobre 2010) . - pp. 1653-1667 Titre : Predicting the next big thing : Success as a signal of poor judgment Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Jerker Denrell, Auteur ; Christina Fang, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 1653-1667 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Managerial foresight Forecasting Resource based view of the firm Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of business magazines. In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability. We first demonstrate how this conclusion can be derived from a formal model of forecasting. We then illustrate that the basic result is consistent with data from two lab experiments as well as field data on professional forecasts from the Wall Street Journal Survey of Economic Forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/10/1653 [article] Predicting the next big thing : Success as a signal of poor judgment [texte imprimé] / Jerker Denrell, Auteur ; Christina Fang, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 1653-1667. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 10 (Octobre 2010) . - pp. 1653-1667 Mots-clés : Managerial foresight Forecasting Resource based view of the firm Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of business magazines. In this paper, we show that an accurate prediction about such an extreme event, e.g., a big hit, may in fact be an indication of poor rather than good forecasting ability. We first demonstrate how this conclusion can be derived from a formal model of forecasting. We then illustrate that the basic result is consistent with data from two lab experiments as well as field data on professional forecasts from the Wall Street Journal Survey of Economic Forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/10/1653

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