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Predicting the next big thing : Success as a signal of poor judgment

Jerker Denrell, Auteur ; Christina Fang, Auteur |

Dans Management science (Vol. 56 N° 10, Octobre 2010)

Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of busine[...]

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