Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? / Saravanan Kesavan in Management science, Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010) . - pp. 1519-1533 Titre : Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Saravanan Kesavan, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Ananth Raman, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 1519-1533 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Sales forecasting Retail Inventory Empirical Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data, to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year. Our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales, and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/9/1519 [article] Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? [texte imprimé] / Saravanan Kesavan, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Ananth Raman, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 1519-1533. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010) . - pp. 1519-1533 Mots-clés : Sales forecasting Retail Inventory Empirical Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data, to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year. Our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales, and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/9/1519

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