Documents disponibles écrits par cet auteur

Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? / Saravanan Kesavan in Management science, Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010) . - pp. 1519-1533 Titre : Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Saravanan Kesavan, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Ananth Raman, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 1519-1533 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Sales  forecasting  Retail  Inventory  Empirical Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data, to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year. Our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales, and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/9/1519 [article] Do inventory and gross margin data improve sales forecasts for U.S. public retailers? [texte imprimé] / Saravanan Kesavan, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Ananth Raman, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 1519-1533. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 9 (Septembre 2010) . - pp. 1519-1533 Mots-clés : Sales  forecasting  Retail  Inventory  Empirical Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data, to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year. Our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales, and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/56/9/1519

Ordering behavior in retail stores and implications for automated replenishment / Karel H. van Donselaar in Management science, Vol. 56 N° 5 (Mai 2010) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 5 (Mai 2010) . - pp. 766-784 Titre : Ordering behavior in retail stores and implications for automated replenishment Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Karel H. van Donselaar, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Tom van Woensel, Auteur Année de publication : 2010 Article en page(s) : pp. 766-784 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Retail  operations  Inventory  management  Behavioral  operations Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Retail store managers may not follow order advices generated by an automated inventory replenishment system if their incentives differ from the cost-minimization objective of the system or if they perceive the system to be suboptimal. We study the ordering behavior of retail store managers in a supermarket chain to characterize such deviations in ordering behavior, investigate their potential drivers, and thereby devise a method to improve automated replenishment systems. Using orders, shipments, and point-of-sale data for 19,417 item–store combinations over five stores, we show that (i) store managers consistently modify automated order advices by advancing orders from peak to nonpeak days, and (ii) this behavior is explained significantly by product characteristics such as case pack size relative to average demand per item, net shelf space, product variety, demand uncertainty, and seasonality error. Our regression results suggest that store managers improve upon the automated replenishment system by incorporating two ignored factors: in-store handling costs and sales improvement potential through better in-stock. Based on these results, we construct a method to modify automated order advices by learning from the behavior of store managers. Motivated by the management coefficients theory, our method is efficient to implement and outperforms store managers by achieving a more balanced handling workload with similar average days of inventory. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/56/5.toc [article] Ordering behavior in retail stores and implications for automated replenishment [texte imprimé] / Karel H. van Donselaar, Auteur ; Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Tom van Woensel, Auteur . - 2010 . - pp. 766-784. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 56 N° 5 (Mai 2010) . - pp. 766-784 Mots-clés : Retail  operations  Inventory  management  Behavioral  operations Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : Retail store managers may not follow order advices generated by an automated inventory replenishment system if their incentives differ from the cost-minimization objective of the system or if they perceive the system to be suboptimal. We study the ordering behavior of retail store managers in a supermarket chain to characterize such deviations in ordering behavior, investigate their potential drivers, and thereby devise a method to improve automated replenishment systems. Using orders, shipments, and point-of-sale data for 19,417 item–store combinations over five stores, we show that (i) store managers consistently modify automated order advices by advancing orders from peak to nonpeak days, and (ii) this behavior is explained significantly by product characteristics such as case pack size relative to average demand per item, net shelf space, product variety, demand uncertainty, and seasonality error. Our regression results suggest that store managers improve upon the automated replenishment system by incorporating two ignored factors: in-store handling costs and sales improvement potential through better in-stock. Based on these results, we construct a method to modify automated order advices by learning from the behavior of store managers. Motivated by the management coefficients theory, our method is efficient to implement and outperforms store managers by achieving a more balanced handling workload with similar average days of inventory. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/56/5.toc

Securitization and real investment in incomplete markets / Vishal Gaur in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 12 (Décembre 2011) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 12 (Décembre 2011) . - pp. 2180-2196 Titre : Securitization and real investment in incomplete markets Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Sridhar Seshadri, Auteur ; Marti G. Subrahmanyam, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 2180-2196 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Incomplete  markets  Securitization  Financial  innovation  Real  options  Project  financing Résumé : We study the impact of financial innovations on real investment decisions within the framework of an incomplete market economy comprised of firms, investors, and an intermediary. The firms face unique investment opportunities that arise in their business operations and can be undertaken at given reservation prices. The cash flows thus generated are not spanned by the securities traded in the financial market and cannot be valued uniquely. The intermediary purchases claims against these cash flows, pools them together, and sells tranches of primary or secondary securities to the investors. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which projects are undertaken due to the intermediary's actions, and firms are amenable to the pool proposed by the intermediary, compared to the no-investment option or the option of forming alternative pools. We also determine the structure of the new securities created by the intermediary and identify how it exploits the arbitrage opportunities available in the market. Our results have implications for valuation of real investments, synergies among them, and their financing mechanisms. We illustrate these implications using an example of inventory decisions under random demand. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/12.toc [article] Securitization and real investment in incomplete markets [texte imprimé] / Vishal Gaur, Auteur ; Sridhar Seshadri, Auteur ; Marti G. Subrahmanyam, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 2180-2196. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 12 (Décembre 2011) . - pp. 2180-2196 Mots-clés : Incomplete  markets  Securitization  Financial  innovation  Real  options  Project  financing Résumé : We study the impact of financial innovations on real investment decisions within the framework of an incomplete market economy comprised of firms, investors, and an intermediary. The firms face unique investment opportunities that arise in their business operations and can be undertaken at given reservation prices. The cash flows thus generated are not spanned by the securities traded in the financial market and cannot be valued uniquely. The intermediary purchases claims against these cash flows, pools them together, and sells tranches of primary or secondary securities to the investors. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which projects are undertaken due to the intermediary's actions, and firms are amenable to the pool proposed by the intermediary, compared to the no-investment option or the option of forming alternative pools. We also determine the structure of the new securities created by the intermediary and identify how it exploits the arbitrage opportunities available in the market. Our results have implications for valuation of real investments, synergies among them, and their financing mechanisms. We illustrate these implications using an example of inventory decisions under random demand. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/12.toc