Demand forecasting behavior / Mirko Kremer in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 10 (Octobre 2011)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol. 57 N° 10 (Octobre 2011) . - pp. 1827-1843 Titre : Demand forecasting behavior : System neglect and change detection Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Mirko Kremer, Auteur ; Brent Moritz, Auteur ; Enno Siemsen, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 1827-1843 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Forecasting Behavioral operations System neglect Exponential smoothing Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to errors in relatively unstable environments. The performance loss that is due to such systematic judgment biases is larger in stable than in unstable environments. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/10/1827.abstract [article] Demand forecasting behavior : System neglect and change detection [texte imprimé] / Mirko Kremer, Auteur ; Brent Moritz, Auteur ; Enno Siemsen, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 1827-1843. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 10 (Octobre 2011) . - pp. 1827-1843 Mots-clés : Forecasting Behavioral operations System neglect Exponential smoothing Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to errors in relatively unstable environments. The performance loss that is due to such systematic judgment biases is larger in stable than in unstable environments. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/10/1827.abstract

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Why genius leads to adversity / Elena Katok in Management science, Vol. 57 N° 6 (Juin 2011)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol. 57 N° 6 (Juin 2011) . - pp. 1042-1054 Titre : Why genius leads to adversity : Experimental evidence on the reputational effects of task difficulty choices Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Elena Katok, Auteur ; Enno Siemsen, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 1042-1054 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Incentives in R&D Behavioral operations Career concerns Decentralization Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We use a behavioral laboratory experiment to study how agents with reputation concerns select the difficulty of their tasks. Drawing upon existing theory, we subjected participants in our study to a context in which they had to convince a principal of their capability to reap financial benefits. Our results show that participants tended to increase the difficulty of their task to enhance their reputation. In addition, we provide evidence that performance rewards reduce a less capable agent's tendency to choose a more difficult task, whereas a highly capable agent's pattern of choices is unaffected by performance rewards. Although the productivity of agents in our experiment therefore decreased if they had to convince a principal of their capability, we show that these detrimental performance implications can to some degree be overcome for less capable agents through performance rewards or by ensuring that the principal can interpret the agent's choice. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/6.toc [article] Why genius leads to adversity : Experimental evidence on the reputational effects of task difficulty choices [texte imprimé] / Elena Katok, Auteur ; Enno Siemsen, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 1042-1054. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 57 N° 6 (Juin 2011) . - pp. 1042-1054 Mots-clés : Incentives in R&D Behavioral operations Career concerns Decentralization Index. décimale : 658 Organisation des entreprises. Techniques du commerce Résumé : We use a behavioral laboratory experiment to study how agents with reputation concerns select the difficulty of their tasks. Drawing upon existing theory, we subjected participants in our study to a context in which they had to convince a principal of their capability to reap financial benefits. Our results show that participants tended to increase the difficulty of their task to enhance their reputation. In addition, we provide evidence that performance rewards reduce a less capable agent's tendency to choose a more difficult task, whereas a highly capable agent's pattern of choices is unaffected by performance rewards. Although the productivity of agents in our experiment therefore decreased if they had to convince a principal of their capability, we show that these detrimental performance implications can to some degree be overcome for less capable agents through performance rewards or by ensuring that the principal can interpret the agent's choice. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/57/6.toc

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