| Titre : | Probability and Risk of slope failure (2009) |
| Auteurs : | Francisco Silva, Auteur ; T. William Lambe, Auteur ; W. Allen Marr, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article : texte imprimé |
| Dans : | Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering (Vol. 134 n°12, Décembre 2008) |
| Article en page(s) : | pp. 1691–1699 |
| Note générale : | Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering |
| Langues : | Anglais |
| Tags : | Decision making Risk management Soil erosion Probability Slope stability Tailings Dams Earth Dam safety |
| Résumé : | This paper aims to demystify the use of risk assessment as a decision management tool and present a methodology that places quantitative risk assessment within reach of every geotechnical engineer, even for routine engineering assignments. In particular, we propose using quantification of expert judgment (i.e., subjective probabilities) as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. The writers present a semiempirical relationship between factor of safety and annual probability of failure that permits estimation of slope failure probabilities with relatively modest effort. The case study for a tailings dam shows that risk assessment based on quantification of expert judgment provides a framework to arrive at rational management and engineering decisions related to dam safety and other geotechnical problems. Using the semiempirical relationship presented here, practicing engineers can use this helpful tool by applying their current skills. |
| En ligne : | http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A12%281691%29 |
