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A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes / A. K. Suzuki in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 61 N° 10 (Octobre 2010) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 61 N° 10 (Octobre 2010) . - pp. 1530–1539 Titre : A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes : the 2006 (Association) Football World Cup Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : A. K. Suzuki, Auteur ; L. E. B. Salasar, Auteur ; J. G. Leite, Auteur Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : pp. 1530–1539 Note générale : Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Bayesian  inference  Forecasting  Simulation  Soccer  World  Cup  Sports  Statistics Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : In this paper we propose a Bayesian methodology for predicting match outcomes. The methodology is illustrated on the 2006 Soccer World Cup. As prior information, we make use of the specialists’ opinions and the FIFA ratings. The method is applied to calculate the win, draw and loss probabilities at each match and also to simulate the whole competition in order to estimate classification probabilities in group stage and winning tournament chances for each team. The prediction capability of the proposed methodology is determined by the DeFinetti measure and by the percentage of correct forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0361-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v61/n10/abs/jors2009127a.html [article] A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes : the 2006 (Association) Football World Cup [texte imprimé] / A. K. Suzuki, Auteur ; L. E. B. Salasar, Auteur ; J. G. Leite, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 1530–1539. Recherche opérationnelle Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 61 N° 10 (Octobre 2010) . - pp. 1530–1539 Mots-clés : Bayesian  inference  Forecasting  Simulation  Soccer  World  Cup  Sports  Statistics Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : In this paper we propose a Bayesian methodology for predicting match outcomes. The methodology is illustrated on the 2006 Soccer World Cup. As prior information, we make use of the specialists’ opinions and the FIFA ratings. The method is applied to calculate the win, draw and loss probabilities at each match and also to simulate the whole competition in order to estimate classification probabilities in group stage and winning tournament chances for each team. The prediction capability of the proposed methodology is determined by the DeFinetti measure and by the percentage of correct forecasts. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0361-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v61/n10/abs/jors2009127a.html