Investor sentiment and analysts' earnings forecast errors / Paul Hribar in Management science, Vol. 58 N° 2 (Février 2012)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol. 58 N° 2 (Février 2012) . - pp. 293-307 Titre : Investor sentiment and analysts' earnings forecast errors Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Paul Hribar, Auteur ; John McInnis, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 293-307 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Accounting Finance Asset pricing Résumé : We correlate analysts' forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts' forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult-to-value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a sizable fraction of the explanatory power of sentiment for the cross section of future returns. This finding provides direct support for the notion that investor sentiment affects the earnings expectations of hard-to-value firms. Additional tests suggest that this bias in expectations is unlikely to be strategic in nature. Our results provide new insight into the mechanism through which investor sentiment affects returns. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/2/293.abstract [article] Investor sentiment and analysts' earnings forecast errors [texte imprimé] / Paul Hribar, Auteur ; John McInnis, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 293-307. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol. 58 N° 2 (Février 2012) . - pp. 293-307 Mots-clés : Accounting Finance Asset pricing Résumé : We correlate analysts' forecast errors with temporal variation in investor sentiment. We find that when sentiment is high, analysts' forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings and long-term earnings growth are relatively more optimistic for “uncertain” or “difficult-to-value” firms. Adding these forecast errors to a regression of stock returns on sentiment absorbs a sizable fraction of the explanatory power of sentiment for the cross section of future returns. This finding provides direct support for the notion that investor sentiment affects the earnings expectations of hard-to-value firms. Additional tests suggest that this bias in expectations is unlikely to be strategic in nature. Our results provide new insight into the mechanism through which investor sentiment affects returns. DEWEY : 658 ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/2/293.abstract

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