[article]
Titre : |
Modeling purchasing behavior with sudden “Death” : A flexible customer lifetime model |
Type de document : |
texte imprimé |
Auteurs : |
Albert C. Bemmaor, Auteur ; Nicolas Glady, Auteur |
Année de publication : |
2012 |
Article en page(s) : |
pp. 1012-1021 |
Note générale : |
Management |
Langues : |
Anglais (eng) |
Mots-clés : |
Buyer behavior Mixture models Catalog retailing Gompertz distribution |
Résumé : |
This study proposes a new customer lifetime model: the gamma/Gompertz distribution (G/G). The advantage of this model relative to the well-known Pareto distribution is twofold: (i) its probability density function can exhibit a mode at zero or an interior mode, and (ii) it can be skewed to the right or to the left. We combine the G/G with a negative binomial distribution (NBD) and obtain the moments of the distribution of the number of transactions over (0, T] and (T, T+T*]. Out of six data sets, the G/G/NBD model provides a notable improvement in the log-likelihood over the Pareto/NBD model in four data sets. It can indicate substantial differences in expected residual lifetimes compared to the Pareto/NBD and induce a retention rather than acquisition policy. On the average, the G/G/NBD exhibits slightly better forecasts of the mean number of transactions than the Pareto/NBD. |
DEWEY : |
658 |
ISSN : |
0025-1909 |
En ligne : |
http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/5/1012.abstract |
in Management science > Vol. 58 N° 5 (Mai 2012) . - pp. 1012-1021
[article] Modeling purchasing behavior with sudden “Death” : A flexible customer lifetime model [texte imprimé] / Albert C. Bemmaor, Auteur ; Nicolas Glady, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 1012-1021. Management Langues : Anglais ( eng) in Management science > Vol. 58 N° 5 (Mai 2012) . - pp. 1012-1021
Mots-clés : |
Buyer behavior Mixture models Catalog retailing Gompertz distribution |
Résumé : |
This study proposes a new customer lifetime model: the gamma/Gompertz distribution (G/G). The advantage of this model relative to the well-known Pareto distribution is twofold: (i) its probability density function can exhibit a mode at zero or an interior mode, and (ii) it can be skewed to the right or to the left. We combine the G/G with a negative binomial distribution (NBD) and obtain the moments of the distribution of the number of transactions over (0, T] and (T, T+T*]. Out of six data sets, the G/G/NBD model provides a notable improvement in the log-likelihood over the Pareto/NBD model in four data sets. It can indicate substantial differences in expected residual lifetimes compared to the Pareto/NBD and induce a retention rather than acquisition policy. On the average, the G/G/NBD exhibits slightly better forecasts of the mean number of transactions than the Pareto/NBD. |
DEWEY : |
658 |
ISSN : |
0025-1909 |
En ligne : |
http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/58/5/1012.abstract |
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