How near - miss events amplify or attenuate risky decision making / Catherine H. Tinsley in Management science, Vol 58 N°9 (Septembre 2012)  

Public ISBD [article]  inManagement science > Vol 58 N°9 (Septembre 2012) . - pp.1596-1613 Titre : How near - miss events amplify or attenuate risky decision making Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Catherine H. Tinsley, Auteur ; Robin L. Dillon, Auteur ; Matthew A. Cronin, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp.1596-1613 Note générale : Management Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Near miss Risk Decision making Natural disasters Organizational hazards Hurricanes Oil spills Résumé : In the aftermath of many natural and man-made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near-miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions (e.g., choosing not to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard). On the other hand, if near misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened, this will counter the basic “near-miss” effect and encourage more mitigation. We illustrate the robustness of this pattern across populations with varying levels of real expertise with hazards and different hazard contexts (household evacuation for a hurricane, Caribbean cruises during hurricane season, and deep-water oil drilling). We conclude with ideas to help people manage and communicate about risk. ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/early/2012/04/13/mnsc.1120.1517.abstra [...] [article] How near - miss events amplify or attenuate risky decision making [texte imprimé] / Catherine H. Tinsley, Auteur ; Robin L. Dillon, Auteur ; Matthew A. Cronin, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp.1596-1613. Management Langues : Anglais (eng) in Management science > Vol 58 N°9 (Septembre 2012) . - pp.1596-1613 Mots-clés : Near miss Risk Decision making Natural disasters Organizational hazards Hurricanes Oil spills Résumé : In the aftermath of many natural and man-made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near-miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions (e.g., choosing not to engage in mitigation activities for the potential hazard). On the other hand, if near misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened, this will counter the basic “near-miss” effect and encourage more mitigation. We illustrate the robustness of this pattern across populations with varying levels of real expertise with hazards and different hazard contexts (household evacuation for a hurricane, Caribbean cruises during hurricane season, and deep-water oil drilling). We conclude with ideas to help people manage and communicate about risk. ISSN : 0025-1909 En ligne : http://mansci.journal.informs.org/content/early/2012/04/13/mnsc.1120.1517.abstra [...]

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