Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment / K. Bogner in JRBM : International journal of river basin management, Vol. 10 N° 1 (Janvier 2012)  

Public ISBD [article]  inJRBM : International journal of river basin management > Vol. 10 N° 1 (Janvier 2012) . - pp. 1-12 Titre : Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : K. Bogner, Auteur ; H. L. Cloke, Auteur ; F. Pappenberger, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 1-12 Note générale : Hydraulique Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Floods Forecasting Quality Verification Cost-loss Résumé : Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated. ISSN : 1571-5124 En ligne : http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359 [article] Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper danube catchment [texte imprimé] / K. Bogner, Auteur ; H. L. Cloke, Auteur ; F. Pappenberger, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 1-12. Hydraulique Langues : Anglais (eng) in JRBM : International journal of river basin management > Vol. 10 N° 1 (Janvier 2012) . - pp. 1-12 Mots-clés : Floods Forecasting Quality Verification Cost-loss Résumé : Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated. ISSN : 1571-5124 En ligne : http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359

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