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When do armed revolts succeed / M. P. Atkinson in Journal of the operational research society (JORS), Vol. 63 N° 10 (Octobre 2012) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 63 N° 10 (Octobre 2012) . - pp. 1363–1373 Titre : When do armed revolts succeed : lessons from Lanchester theory Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : M. P. Atkinson, Auteur ; A. Gutfraind, Auteur ; M. Kress, Auteur Année de publication : 2012 Article en page(s) : pp. 1363–1373 Note générale : operational research Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : conflict  analysis;  defence  studies;  system  dynamics;  population;  behaviour Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Major revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favouring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011), and it points to how those situations might evolve. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v63/n10/abs/jors2011146a.html [article] When do armed revolts succeed : lessons from Lanchester theory [texte imprimé] / M. P. Atkinson, Auteur ; A. Gutfraind, Auteur ; M. Kress, Auteur . - 2012 . - pp. 1363–1373. operational research Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of the operational research society (JORS) > Vol. 63 N° 10 (Octobre 2012) . - pp. 1363–1373 Mots-clés : conflict  analysis;  defence  studies;  system  dynamics;  population;  behaviour Index. décimale : 001.424 Résumé : Major revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favouring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011), and it points to how those situations might evolve. DEWEY : 001.424 ISSN : 0160-5682 En ligne : http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v63/n10/abs/jors2011146a.html