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Probabilistic model for the assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation (volumetric) settlements / K. Onder Cetin in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) . - pp. 387–398 Titre : Probabilistic model for the assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation (volumetric) settlements Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : K. Onder Cetin, Auteur ; H. Tolga Bilge, Auteur ; Jiaer Wu, Auteur Année de publication : 2009 Article en page(s) : pp. 387–398 Note générale : Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Volume  change  Settlement  Probability  Soil  liquefaction  Soil  consolidation Résumé : A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlements of saturated cohesionless soil sites is described. For this purpose, over 200 case history sites were carefully studied. After screening for data quality and completeness, the resulting database is composed of 49 high-quality, cyclically induced ground settlement case histories from seven different earthquakes. For these case history sites, settlement predictions by currently available methods of Tokimatsu and Seed (1984), Ishihara and Yoshimine (1992), Shamoto et al. (1998), and Wu and Seed (2004) are presented comparatively, along with the predictions of the proposed probabilistic model. As an integral part of the proposed model, the volumetric strain correlation presented in the companion paper is used. The accuracy of the mean predictions as well as their uncertainty is assessed by both linear regression and maximum likelihood methodologies. The analyses results revealed that (1) the predictions of Shamoto et al. and Tokimatsu and Seed are smaller than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 1.93 and 1.45, respectively; and (2) Ishihara and Yoshimine, and Wu and Seed predictions are higher than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 0.90 and 0.98, respectively. The Wu and Seed procedure produced the most unbiased estimates of mean settlements [i.e., their calibration coefficient (0.98) is the closest to unity], but the uncertainty (scatter) of their predictions remains high as revealed by the second to last smaller R2 value, or relatively higher standard deviation (σε) of the model error. In addition to superior model predictions, the main advantage of the proposed methodology is the probabilistic nature of the calibration scheme, which enables incorporation of the model uncertainty into mean settlement predictions. To illustrate the potential use of the proposed model, the probability of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlement of a site after a scenario earthquake to be less than a threshold settlement level is assessed. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282009%29135%3A3%2838 [...] [article] Probabilistic model for the assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation (volumetric) settlements [texte imprimé] / K. Onder Cetin, Auteur ; H. Tolga Bilge, Auteur ; Jiaer Wu, Auteur . - 2009 . - pp. 387–398. Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) . - pp. 387–398 Mots-clés : Volume  change  Settlement  Probability  Soil  liquefaction  Soil  consolidation Résumé : A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlements of saturated cohesionless soil sites is described. For this purpose, over 200 case history sites were carefully studied. After screening for data quality and completeness, the resulting database is composed of 49 high-quality, cyclically induced ground settlement case histories from seven different earthquakes. For these case history sites, settlement predictions by currently available methods of Tokimatsu and Seed (1984), Ishihara and Yoshimine (1992), Shamoto et al. (1998), and Wu and Seed (2004) are presented comparatively, along with the predictions of the proposed probabilistic model. As an integral part of the proposed model, the volumetric strain correlation presented in the companion paper is used. The accuracy of the mean predictions as well as their uncertainty is assessed by both linear regression and maximum likelihood methodologies. The analyses results revealed that (1) the predictions of Shamoto et al. and Tokimatsu and Seed are smaller than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 1.93 and 1.45, respectively; and (2) Ishihara and Yoshimine, and Wu and Seed predictions are higher than the actual settlements and need to be calibrated by a factor of 0.90 and 0.98, respectively. The Wu and Seed procedure produced the most unbiased estimates of mean settlements [i.e., their calibration coefficient (0.98) is the closest to unity], but the uncertainty (scatter) of their predictions remains high as revealed by the second to last smaller R2 value, or relatively higher standard deviation (σε) of the model error. In addition to superior model predictions, the main advantage of the proposed methodology is the probabilistic nature of the calibration scheme, which enables incorporation of the model uncertainty into mean settlement predictions. To illustrate the potential use of the proposed model, the probability of cyclically induced reconsolidation settlement of a site after a scenario earthquake to be less than a threshold settlement level is assessed. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282009%29135%3A3%2838 [...]

Probabilistic models for cyclic straining of saturated clean sands / K. Onder Cetin in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) 

Public ISBD [article]  in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) . - pp. 371–386 Titre : Probabilistic models for cyclic straining of saturated clean sands Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : K. Onder Cetin, Auteur ; H. Tolga Bilge, Auteur ; Jiaer Wu, Auteur Année de publication : 2009 Article en page(s) : pp. 371–386 Note générale : Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Cyclic  tests  Shear  strain  Volume  change  Probability  Sand Résumé : A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and “index” test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a series of stress-controlled cyclic triaxial and simple shear tests were performed on laboratory-constituted saturated clean sand specimens. The variabilities in testing conditions (i.e., type of test, consolidation procedure, confining pressure, rate of loading, etc.) were corrected through a series of correction schemes, the effectiveness of which were later confirmed by the discriminant analyses results. Volumetric and shear strain boundary curves were developed in the cyclic stress ratio versus N1,60,CS or qc,1 domain. In addition to being based on significantly extended and higher quality databases, contrary to the existing judgmentally derived deterministic ones, proposed correlations have formal probabilistic bases, and so provide insight regarding uncertainty of strain predictions or probability of exceeding a target strain value. Probabilistic uses of the proposed correlations were illustrated by three sets of examples. A companion paper applied and calibrated the proposed volumetric strain correlation to semiempirically evaluate postearthquake settlement of level, free-field sites. For the calibration, case history soil profiles, composed of a broad range of sand types and depositional characteristics, shaken by a number of earthquakes, were used. Superior predictions of field settlements by this laboratory data-based cyclic strain assessment approach were concluded to be strongly mutually supportive. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282009%29135%3A3%2837 [...] [article] Probabilistic models for cyclic straining of saturated clean sands [texte imprimé] / K. Onder Cetin, Auteur ; H. Tolga Bilge, Auteur ; Jiaer Wu, Auteur . - 2009 . - pp. 371–386. Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 135 N°3 (Mars 2009) . - pp. 371–386 Mots-clés : Cyclic  tests  Shear  strain  Volume  change  Probability  Sand Résumé : A maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of postcyclic straining of saturated clean sands is described. Databases consisting of cyclic laboratory test results including maximum shear and postcyclic volumetric strains in conjunction with relative density, number of stress (strain) cycles, and “index” test results were used for the development of probabilistically based postcyclic strain correlations. For this purpose, in addition to the compilation of existing data from literature, a series of stress-controlled cyclic triaxial and simple shear tests were performed on laboratory-constituted saturated clean sand specimens. The variabilities in testing conditions (i.e., type of test, consolidation procedure, confining pressure, rate of loading, etc.) were corrected through a series of correction schemes, the effectiveness of which were later confirmed by the discriminant analyses results. Volumetric and shear strain boundary curves were developed in the cyclic stress ratio versus N1,60,CS or qc,1 domain. In addition to being based on significantly extended and higher quality databases, contrary to the existing judgmentally derived deterministic ones, proposed correlations have formal probabilistic bases, and so provide insight regarding uncertainty of strain predictions or probability of exceeding a target strain value. Probabilistic uses of the proposed correlations were illustrated by three sets of examples. A companion paper applied and calibrated the proposed volumetric strain correlation to semiempirically evaluate postearthquake settlement of level, free-field sites. For the calibration, case history soil profiles, composed of a broad range of sand types and depositional characteristics, shaken by a number of earthquakes, were used. Superior predictions of field settlements by this laboratory data-based cyclic strain assessment approach were concluded to be strongly mutually supportive. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282009%29135%3A3%2837 [...]