Probability and Risk of slope failure / Francisco Silva in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 134 n°12 (Décembre 2008)  

Public ISBD [article]  inJournal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 n°12 (Décembre 2008) . - pp. 1691–1699 Titre : Probability and Risk of slope failure Type de document : texte imprimé Auteurs : Francisco Silva, Auteur ; T. William Lambe, Auteur ; W. Allen Marr, Auteur Année de publication : 2009 Article en page(s) : pp. 1691–1699 Note générale : Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Decision making Risk management Soil erosion Probability Slope stability Tailings Dams Earth Dam safety Résumé : This paper aims to demystify the use of risk assessment as a decision management tool and present a methodology that places quantitative risk assessment within reach of every geotechnical engineer, even for routine engineering assignments. In particular, we propose using quantification of expert judgment (i.e., subjective probabilities) as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. The writers present a semiempirical relationship between factor of safety and annual probability of failure that permits estimation of slope failure probabilities with relatively modest effort. The case study for a tailings dam shows that risk assessment based on quantification of expert judgment provides a framework to arrive at rational management and engineering decisions related to dam safety and other geotechnical problems. Using the semiempirical relationship presented here, practicing engineers can use this helpful tool by applying their current skills. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A12%281 [...] [article] Probability and Risk of slope failure [texte imprimé] / Francisco Silva, Auteur ; T. William Lambe, Auteur ; W. Allen Marr, Auteur . - 2009 . - pp. 1691–1699. Geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 134 n°12 (Décembre 2008) . - pp. 1691–1699 Mots-clés : Decision making Risk management Soil erosion Probability Slope stability Tailings Dams Earth Dam safety Résumé : This paper aims to demystify the use of risk assessment as a decision management tool and present a methodology that places quantitative risk assessment within reach of every geotechnical engineer, even for routine engineering assignments. In particular, we propose using quantification of expert judgment (i.e., subjective probabilities) as a practical alternative for determining probability of slope failure. The writers present a semiempirical relationship between factor of safety and annual probability of failure that permits estimation of slope failure probabilities with relatively modest effort. The case study for a tailings dam shows that risk assessment based on quantification of expert judgment provides a framework to arrive at rational management and engineering decisions related to dam safety and other geotechnical problems. Using the semiempirical relationship presented here, practicing engineers can use this helpful tool by applying their current skills. En ligne : http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%291090-0241%282008%29134%3A12%281 [...]

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