Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach / Ellen M. Rathje in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, Vol. 137 N° 3 (Mars 2011)  

Estimating fully probabilistic seismic sliding displacements of slopes from a pseudoprobabilistic approach [texte imprimé] / Ellen M. Rathje, Auteur ; Gokhan Saygili, Auteur . - 2011 . - pp. 208-217.
Géotechnique
Langues : Anglais (eng)
in Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering > Vol. 137 N° 3 (Mars 2011) . - pp. 208-217

Mots-clés :	Probabilistic Seismic hazard Assessment Slope displacement performance
Index. décimale :	624.1 Infrastructures.Ouvrages en terre. Fondations. Tunnels
Résumé :	Permanent sliding displacements are used to evaluate the seismic stability of earth slopes, and current practice utilizes a pseudoprobabilistic approach to predict the expected sliding displacement. The pseudoprobabilistic approach specifies a design ground-motion level based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and a specified hazard level (e.g., 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years), but the displacement is predicted deterministically based on the design ground-motion level. The fully probabilistic approach develops a hazard curve for sliding displacement, and it is used to assess the displacement of the slope for a given hazard level. Comparisons of the fully probabilistic and pseudoprobabilistic approaches indicate that the pseudoprobabilistic analysis provides nonconservative estimates of sliding displacement in most cases. This paper presents a modification to the pseudoprobabilistic approach that provides displacement values more consistent with the fully probabilistic approach. This modification involves specifying a displacement greater than the median, in order to take into account the uncertainty in the displacement prediction. The appropriate value of displacement above the median is a function of the ky/PGA value and the model used to predict the displacement.
DEWEY :	624.1
ISSN :	1090-0241
En ligne :	http://ascelibrary.org/gto/resource/1/jggefk/v137/i3/p208_s1?isAuthorized=no